Marc Lynch says that both outcomes of the Gaza crisis are good for Al-Qaeda:
Israel’s assault on Gaza has really created an almost unbelievable no-lose situation for al-Qaeda. If Hamas “wins”, then al-Qaeda gets to share in the benefits of the political losses incurred by its Western and Arab enemies (Zawahiri mentions Mubarak and the Saudis in this tape, but not the Jordanians) and can try to take advantage of the political upheavals which could follow. If Hamas “loses”, al-Qaeda still wins. It will shed no tears at seeing one of its bitterest and most dangerous rivals take a beating at Israel’s hands or losing control of a government that they have consistently decried as illegitimate and misguided. Either way, the Gaza crisis guarantees that a far more radicalized Islamic world will face the incoming Obama administration — potentially severely blunting the challenge which al-Qaeda clearly felt after the election (hence Zawahiri’s attempt to pre-emptively discredit Obama by declaring the attack Obama’s “gift” to Muslims).